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Residual values could fall by 10% over the next year as the economic effects of a recession and high unemployment bite.

The prediction is included in the BVRLA’s latest Leasing Outlook report, which warns the vehicle leasing industry is braced for yet more challenges as “the most turbulent year imaginable” comes to an end.

The report says the sector remains agile but is also seeking clarity around the impact of Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and the transition to zero-emission motoring.

BVRLA members expect battery electric vehicles to hit 6% of the total lease car fleet by the middle of next year, with plug-in hybrids hitting 9%.

Petrol’s market share will begin to plateau at around 38%, with diesel slipping under 50% for the first time at 46%.

Andrew Mee, head of forecast UK at Cap HPI, told the report: “On average, used car values are now around 7% higher than they were a year ago and we consider this unsustainable.

“As we move through Q4, we expect that the strength in the used market may start to slowly ebb away, as pent-up demand is satisfied and the typical pattern of falling values in the latter months of the year could be re-established.

“A fall of 10% over the next year looks reasonable.

“It is broadly similar to 2019 and is nowhere near as bad as we saw in 2008.”

The report says there will be an improvement beyond 2021, but it will not be as rapid as it was in 2009, due to Covid having a much broader and more complex set of impacts on the economy and automotive market.

The three other broad themes covered by the report are:

• Supply chains – leasing companies are looking forward to a rebound in demand for fleet vehicles as the economy recovers but are concerned about the potential for extended lead times and the reputational damage that could ensue.
• Brexit – The type of EU-Exit we get will have a huge impact on business confidence, lead times, the cost of new vehicles and the ease with which they can be moved around the UK and Europe.
• Liquidity – The financial and administrative burden of providing forbearance to those hit by the pandemic will last well into 2021 and there are signs that the supply of motor finance is also tightening.

By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

Drivers are being urged to ensure they are selecting the right replacement tyres for their cars, to avoid unnecessary costs.

Michelin warns that inappropriate or incorrect fitments could negatively impact fuel economy and tyre life, as well as affecting vehicle handling and performance characteristics.

In some cases, incorrect tyre fitment can risk invalidating the vehicle manufacturer’s warranty.

Michelin’s fleet team points to a rise in the instances of vehicles driving on inappropriate tyres, such as cars running on van tyres (or vice versa), the mixing of standard and run-flat technology products, or incorrect tyres which don’t have the required speed or load rating for the vehicle.

Some manufacturers of 4x4s and high-performance vehicles also stipulate specific marked, homologated tyres for their vehicles.

Brian Porteous, Michelin’s technical manager – Car, Van, 4×4 and Government Contracts, said: “It is crucial that any replacement tyres you select are compatible with each other, compatible with the vehicle and deliver the appropriate handling and performance characteristics.

“Vehicle manufacturers work incredibly hard to fine-tune their cars and vans to handle a certain way, and all of that can be upset if you fit a tyre which, although the correct size, might be intended for a different vehicle altogether. Driving on inappropriate tyres can also lead to reductions in fuel efficiency, passenger comfort and tyre life, plus a noisier ride.”

To help fleets and consumers maximise safety and avoid incorrect tyre selection, Michelin has published a six-point guide which is applicable regardless of tyre brand preference.

• Tyres must meet the vehicle manufacturer’s requirements of load and speed, plus any local regulatory requirements such as: vehicle speed, E marking, winter marking, directional fitment etc.
• If a vehicle manufacturer requires specific marked, homologated tyres, then these must be fitted. It is sometimes possible to use other tyres, but not always – consult your vehicle handbook
• It is essential for vehicle stability that the best grip is maintained at the rear. If all tyres are not being replaced together, the new tyres must be fitted to the rear
• The tyres on each end of an axle must be of the same type. Differences in tyre performance, particularly towards the end of a tyre’s life, make this critical for vehicle stability and predictability
• Winter tyres must always be fitted in full vehicle sets. Do not mix summer and winter tyres across a vehicle
• Run-flat technology tyres must always be fitted in full vehicle sets and to the appropriate wheel type. The vehicle manufacturer’s guidance must be followed as there are often differences in vehicle characteristics to work effectively with the run-flat tyre capability

Peter Wood, Michelin key account manager, added: “As technology has evolved, so has tyre choice. Customers can now select between summer, all-season, winter, extra load, run-flat technology and even acoustic tuned tyres, to name just a few of the options.

In one size alone, there can be several different load and speed ratings to suit various vehicle types, plus options for different seasons and driving styles.”  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

The first electric vehicles (EVs) were given green number plates from Tuesday, December 8, with the Government suggesting the move could unlock incentives for drivers and fleets.

Ministers gave the go-ahead for the new number plate design for pure electric vehicles (EVs) in June.

The new number plates can be retro-fitted to any existing vehicles, including cars, vans, buses, HGVs, taxis and motorcycles as long as they emit no CO2 emissions at the tailpipe.

They will consist of a green flash on the left-hand side of the plate and can be combined with the Union flag and national identifiers already permitted by the regulations.

Transport Minister Rachel Maclean says that the green number plates build on last month’s announcement to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in the UK by 2030.

She also believes that EV operators could benefit from local initiatives such as cheaper parking and cost-free entry into zero-emission zones.

She said: “Not only will green number plates raise awareness of the increasing number of cleaner vehicles on our roads, they could also unlock a number of incentives for drivers.

“It’s clear there has never been a better time to make the switch to a zero-emission vehicle.”

Ashley Barnett, head of consultancy at Lex Autolease, told Fleet News says that today’s introduction of green number plates to identify zero-emission vehicles on the UK’s roads will boost driver advocacy even further and will go a long way to keep up the momentum behind the Government’s Road to Zero strategy.

“The deadline to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 looms ever closer, so anything that simply and clearly communicates the benefits of electric vehicle adoption – from better parking spaces to accessing emissions-restricted zones – to a wider audience is a welcome shot in the arm,” he said.

A survey by Nissan suggests that a third of motorists in the UK would be more likely to buy an EV, because of the new green number plates

.

Andrew Humberstone, managing director of Nissan Motor GB, said: “The age of the electric vehicle is now approaching rapidly and these new green registration plates will soon be a common sight on our roads.”

The Nissan survey, carried out by respected pollsters YouGov, found that with the introduction of green number plates, and the prospect of further incentives linked to EV ownership, 32% of people would be more likely to buy an electric car.  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

For the second consecutive year, the FN50 top 10 has, aside from some minor positional shuffling, remained the same: the same companies largely in the same places.

The two exceptions are Arval and LeasePlan switching places and an identical swap by Free2Move and Zenith.

Also occurring for the second consecutive year is a decline in total car and van volumes funded by the UK’s 50 biggest leasing companies. The 2.5% reversal, or 43,186 vehicles, is slightly higher than the previous year’s 2%/35,371, resulting in an FN50 funded fleet of 1,662,320 vehicles.

However, where last year the drop in vehicles was largely prompted by the exit of Mercedes-Benz Financial Services (now retail only) and Sandicliffe Motor Contracts (no longer funding), the year it is due to an industry-wide reduction in company cars.

This is a result of people opting for cash (the number of employees paying benefit-in-kind (BIK)  tax on a car continues to fall – 90,000 have left a car scheme over the past five years) and, more recently, by the impact of Covid-19 on jobs, although the full shock of this impending economic crisis is still to be felt.

And, while opt-outs are often converted into personal leases, this hasn’t plugged the gap.

Consequently, the number of company cars in the FN50 has fallen year-on-year by 3.3%, or 41,080 units, while vans saw a negligible 0.5% dip of 2,106 vehicles.

It continues a three-year trend of vans taking a gradually increasing share of the total number of vehicles funded by the FN50: in 2017 they accounted for 24%; this year it’s 27%.

The FN50 data presents a slightly less sombre picture than the recent industry-wide figures released by the British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association which showed a lease fleet decline of 3.6% year-on-year, at a little more than 2.53 million vehicles.

However, its survey revealed growth in the van fleet by 2.1%, which partially offset a heavier deficit in cars of 5.2%.

Swing towards PCH

Healthier performance by personal leasing Business contract hire bore the brunt of the losses, down 9.7%, while personal contract hire (PCH) enjoyed a healthier performance, up 5.7%. This is echoed by the FN50 members, where the larger organisations have been extending their penetration into the personal leasing sector in recent years.

The past couple of years have seen a definite swing towards PCH among the UK’s biggest leasing companies. In 2018, fleet leasing accounted for 87% of their car business; this year that has fallen to 80%. Almost a quarter of a million cars (244,194) are now PCH.

Often, manufacturer-owned leasing providers have a greater proportion of retail business due to the agreements sold via their franchised dealers, such as FCA’s Leasys at 69% and Renault’s RCI at 67%, while ALD, which powers white label finance for the likes of Kia and Ford, is also weighted towards private leasing. Santander Consumer Finance (the clue being in the name) is 82.5% private and Affinity Leasing, which specialises in corporate affinity schemes for employees, is 96% private.

With the likes of Zenith (ZenAuto) and Arval (Arval for Employees) stepping up their retail aspirations, and growth in salary sacrifice schemes (although not all leasing companies view these as private leasing because of the central agreement with the employer), plus bank-owned organisations such as Lex Autolease improving internal synergies, personal lines could tighten their grip on the FN50 numbers in the coming years.

“The market has been diversifying for many years now and personal leasing in its various forms has penetrated both the retail market and corporate sectors,” says Craig McNaughton, corporate director at the UK’s biggest fleet lender Lex Autolease.

However, a compelling counter-argument centres on the growing attractiveness of electric and plug-in hybrid cars due to the very low BIK tax rates over the next four years.

Some leasing companies are already reporting electric cars accounting for 30-40% of their order books.

McNaughton again: “The advent of 0% BIK for EVs and low BIK for ULEVs has seen movement back into company cars and salary sacrifice.”

He believes that traditional fleet funding methods will remain dominant, despite suggestions among some industry commentators that a growing need for flexibility will persuade companies to negotiate shorter terms and consider alternative funding arrangements.

“We have been part of subscription trials with partners and they do have potential in very specific circumstances, but the economic model for such services remains a challenge, as can be seen by the poor financial results that continue to be delivered by traditional vehicle rental companies,” he says.

“As such, changes to shorter leases and more flexible products are likely to remain small scale due to their relative expense with the market continuing to mainly fulfil demand for providing long-term leasing/funding solutions.”

Nevertheless, flexibility is a recurring theme during 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by Covid-19 and a surge in people working from home, reducing their dependence on the car.

Alphabet doesn’t see subscription services as a replacement for traditional funding, but it does recognise the need for increasing flexibility, according to chief commercial office Simon Carr.

“We expect to see a rise in demand for shorter term, adaptable leasing arrangements to bridge the gap between rental and longer-term leases as drivers’ roles and requirements change,” Carr says.

“Funding choices will become even more data-led and wholelife costs will play an even bigger part in fleet managers’ decisions as the total cost of mobility will be key to running a successful fleet in a time when travel has naturally reduced.”

Flexibility doesn’t just mean shorter terms, however. Salary sacrifice expert Tusker has responded to customers’ needs to “provide shorter and longer agreement options for employees to increase inclusion for lower earners and those on shorter employment contracts”, says CEO Paul Gilsham.

EVs stimulating growth

Meanwhile, Claire Evans, fleet consultancy director at Zenith, believes EVs are stimulating growth in all sectors of the market, from company cars to salary sacrifice to personal contracts.

“We are already seeing a trend into leased vehicles and away from ownership with the growth in electric vehicles and movement to subscription-based services based on monthly affordability,” Evans says.

“It has resulted in increases in salary sacrifice and personal contract hire cars, where EVs account for one-in-two and one-in-four orders placed this year, respectively. We expect to see this trend continue.”

As part of the FN50 survey, leasing companies provide data on the vehicles they manage on behalf of a fleet customer but don’t fund.

For cars, the numbers have risen, showing that the need by UK business for fleet management support is growing, as outsourcing of a function sometimes seen as non-core continues.

This year, the number of cars under fleet management has risen by 27,046 to 259,518; meanwhile, the number of vans has fallen slightly, from 62,808 to 62,129.

As a business essential tool, vans are much more likely to be an in-house responsibility, particularly if the company also runs trucks with their elevated legal and compliance requirements.

The rise in fleet management has helped many leasing companies to offset the reversals in fleet funding.

With three new entrants in 2020, 26 of the 47 returning FN50 companies saw their funded fleet fall compared with 2019, up from 19 companies last year.

By far, the biggest impact was felt by those left outside the top 20 (see table), where double-digit falls were commonplace.

Half of the top 10 are funding more vehicles than a year ago, with notable growth in cars and vans by Arval, lifting it by 6% to leapfrog LeasePlan into third place, and seventh-placed Hitachi Capital Vehicle Solutions, up 7% thanks to wins in both cars and vans.

Free2Move bumped Zenith from eighth after a 5% boost to its funded business, almost entirely cars with a 7,000-unit rise, while Zenith experienced a marginal 1% drop in funded business – although its van division was up year-on-year.

Zenith has also extended its penetration into the truck business with the acquisition in September of Cartwright Fleet Services, Cartwright Rentals and Cartwright Finance Sales from the administrators.

The move created one of the UK’s largest HGV and specialist fleets with more than 50,000 vehicles and one of the UK’s largest trailer rental fleets.

It also underlines how some of the UK’s top lenders are now multi-asset funders with a breadth of interests, from salary sacrifice, job need and perk cars to vans, trucks and trailers.

And some are starting to gow even further, with e-scooters/ e-bikes, car share and other forms of mobility services.  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

A new statistical release from the Department for Transport (DfT) has highlighted an increase in speeding on UK roads during the first Coronavirus lockdown.

It follows numerous reports from road safety organisations and Police forces across the country that speeding had become more prolific as the nation’s roads emptied in line with national restrictions.

The latest data shows that 63% of cars exceeded the speed limit on 30mph roads during Q2 (April to June) 2020, compared to 56% during the same period in 2019.

There was also a 7% rise in the percentage of cars exceeding the speed limit on 60mph single carriageway roads – up from 10% in Q2 2019 to 17% in Q2 2020.

The percentage of speeding motorists rose by 1% on motorways, to 53%.

As restrictions eased later in Q2, road traffic began to return to normal levels, and speed limit exceedance also started to return to levels more similar to 2019.

The DfT report stated: “The annual speed compliance statistics show very little variation in compliance with the speed limit from year to year, so without the coronavirus pandemic, we would expect speed limit compliance to have remained in line with previous years.”

The worst speeder in the first three weeks of the lockdown was caught in West Yorkshire driving at 151mph on the M62 motorway, according the RAC. This was 11mph faster than the next fastest recorded which was 140mph on the A14 in Suffolk.

Six forces – The Met, Northamptonshire, Gwent, Staffordshire, Kent and Humberside – all caught motorists driving at speeds in excess of 130mph and three others – Police Scotland, The Met and Lancashire – recorded drivers at speeds over 120mph.

The highest speed seen in a 40mph limit was 134mph – 94mph above the limit – recorded by the Met on the A10 in North London, while Cambridgeshire Police detected a car being driven at 73mph in a 30mph area.

Derbyshire Constabulary also caught a driver going at 108mph on the M1 – 68mph above the speed limit. The only other force whose highest speed was in a 40mph limit was Bedfordshire – here the driver was clocked at 104mph on Airport Way in Luton.

RAC head of roads policy Nicholas Lyes said: “This data confirms what we previously suspected: lower traffic volumes sadly led to some shocking levels of speed limit disobedience, particularly on 30mph limit roads.

This dangerous behaviour unnecessarily put lives at risk during the first national lockdown when more people were walking and cycling.

“Empty roads should not be an excuse to drive dangerously and it would be frightening to think one of the legacies of the lockdown is a complete disregard for speed limits and other road users’ safety.” By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

Civic slipping down the table leaves German cars occupying the top six places, reports Matt de Prez

The Audi A4 has retained its crown as the FN50’s most reliable car for the second year running, achieving the lowest number of mechanical breakdowns and warranty repairs among the UK’s 50 largest leasing companies.

It rose to victory last year – where it topped the charts for the first time – fending off its keenest rival, the BMW 3 Series, although BMW remains the UK’s most reliable car maufacturer.

In total, 80 models received a ranking by leasing companies in the 2020 listing.

Having launched in 2015, the A4 received a mild-facelift last year – bringing cleaner mild-hybrid engines and revised infotainment.

An all-new 3 Series launched in the same year, however, beating the A4 in the 2020 Fleet News Awards to win both the Best Premium Car and Best New Company Car trophies.

Whether the new model will enable the brand to reclaim its position at the top of the FN50, as it did between 2015-2017, remains to be seen.

Comparing this year’s figures with the previous shows a major move for the Honda Civic. It topped the chart in 2018 before slipping to fifth place last year. In 2020, the Civic has dropped again and now sits in seventh position.

Golf’s strong performance

It means the top six is populated entirely by German cars this year, with third place occupied by the Volkswagen Golf.

It’s a strong performance for the model, which is the best-selling fleet car in the UK and was replaced by an all-new model earlier this year.

The Golf pushed BMW’s 5 Series down to equal fifth place with the Audi A3 – also replaced by an all-new model this year – which climbs the chart from 11th and makes Audi and BMW the only brands to have two cars in the top five.

Mercedes-Benz enters the table in fourth place, with its C-Class model ranking in the top 10 for the first time since 2016.

It’s second entrant, the E-Class, has also climbed the table from ninth to eighth place this year – having placed 13th in 2018 – a good result that reflects the saturation of the newer generation car among leasing company fleets since it launched in 2016.

Hyundai makes an appearance in equal ninth position, with the i30 giving the brand a spot in the top 10 list for the first time.

Rounding off the top 10 is the ageing, but the nonetheless exceedingly popular, Nissan Qashqai.

It ties with the i30 in ninth place after a one-year hiatus and is the only model representing the crossover segment in this year’s top 10.

Both the Volkswagen Passat and Škoda Octavia dropped out of the table this year, placing 12th and 15th respectively.

The Audi A1 (23rd), Toyota Yaris (40th), Toyota CH-R (28th), Kia Sportage (33rd) and Ford Focus (16th) have all slipped out of the top 15 this year, although it should be noted that the margins between many of the models are very small.

While BMW failed to top the reliability ranking with its 3 Series, and the 5 Series lost ground this year, it still retained its title as the Most Reliable Manufacturer overall.

The Munich giant remains undefeated for six years.

Leasing companies ranked 27 models this year. Audi has held on to its number two spot this year with a strong performance from its A4 and A3 models, while Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen sit third and fourth, respectively.

Honda has dropped from fifth to eight place this year, while Toyota – which saw improved positions for the Aygo (17th) and Prius (23rd) versus 2019 – has crept up one position to secure the final place in the top five.

Hyundai places sixth, while Volvo shoots up the table, occupying its highest ever position: seventh.

Volvo’s performance reflects its dramatic growth in the fleet sector, with strong year-on-year increases in registrations growing the presence of its vehicles on FN50 fleets.

Seat takes ninth place and is the VW Group’s third most-reliable brand, according to the FN50 survey.

Mitsubishi climbs two places, meanwhile, and occupies 10th position.

Kia drops out of the top 10 to 13th, having placed ninth in 2019 with the Ceed now its top rated model, in 18th place. Equally, Ford has dropped from 10th to 14th and has no cars in the top 15 reliability list (although Focus just misses out in 16th place).

Renault turning a corner

Renault may be happier, appearing in the top 15 for the first time.

The French brand appears to be turning a corner, with the Captur rising to 12th and both Mégane and Kadjar receiving a ranking.

This year’s newcomers mean that Mini (16th) and Vauxhall (19th) have been pushed from the top 15 list altogether.

How are models/brands ranked?

Each FN50 leasing company provides its top 10 most reliable models and most reliable brands and the ranking is based on 10 points for first place, nine for second and so on.

Some leasing companies also provide reliability data to add robustness to the survey responses. By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

The total market value for UK primary vehicle body repairs has fallen by 26.6% to £3.57 billion in 2020, as a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic, new research suggests.

Furthermore, the report on the UK vehicle body repair and motor insurance market, published today (Monday, November 30) by independent market research company Trend Tracker, says accident repair volumes will not return to pre-Covid levels until 2022.

The Emerging from Covid-19 – The UK Vehicle Body Repair and Motor Insurance Market 2020-2023 Market Study reports that accident repair volumes declined by 30% in 2020.

However, it says that as repair costs have continued on an upward trajectory, predominantly due to the increased complexity of Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) and an increasing number of vehicles with hybrid or electric powertrains, the financial loss to the sector is calculated at 26.6%.

Mark Bull, director of Trend Tracker, said: “Anecdotally, the volume demand for insurer-funded accident damage repairs fell by approximately 80% overnight as the initial nationwide lockdown came into effect in March, however they had steadily recovered to approximately 75% of pre-Covid levels as Government restrictions eased, until November that is.

“The Trend Tracker research has monitored repair volume and values throughout the year to calculate quantitative figures that show a projected annual loss of £1.3bn in 2020 to the UK vehicle repair industry.”

Of the £1.3bn market contraction, which can readily be viewed as a direct saving to motor insurers’ claims expenditure, £5.6 million is attributed to a loss of parts sales, £4.1m as lost labour sales and £2.6m as lost paint sales, with the remainder being additional and consumable items.

“We would expect traffic volumes to return to greater levels during 2021,” Mark Bull, Trend Tracker

Meanwhile, offsetting some of the financial loss to the vehicle body repair market, the cost of repairs continues to rise year-on-year.

Since 2018 to the first half of 2020, overall repair costs generated via the Solera Audatex system have increased by 10.2%, from an average of £1,860 to £2,050 per repair.

Taking a longer-term view, since 2013 overall repair costs generated via the Solera Audatex system have increased by 48.5% and they show no sign of slowing, due primarily to ever-increasing vehicle complexity.

Bull explained: “While we know that 2020 has been devastating for many businesses across all sectors, the vehicle body repair sector was very much on the road to recovery until lockdown 2.0 came into effect.

“However, with the excellent news that a vaccine will be available shortly, we would expect traffic volumes to return to greater levels during 2021, which should correlate to a V-shape recovery in terms of the number of accident damage claims.

This is encouraging for bodyshops, although we predict that pre-Covid work volume will not return until 2022.”  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

Road users have sent more than 50,000 dashcam recordings of potential traffic offices to police forces since 2017, with one-third resulting in action.

Police forces across the UK receive more than 35 pieces of footage every day, according to a freedom of information request sent to every UK constabulary by What Car?

Just over 10% of the incidents captured on film were severe enough to warrant a court prosecution and 9.6% resulted in a Fixed Penalty Notice (FPN).

A further 10.5% resulted in the driver being asked to attend a driver awareness course, and 3.0% of drivers were given a warning.

The use of dashcams by drivers and other road users has increased by around 850% since 2017, when insurance companies started accepting footage as evidence for claims and the courts first used footage to convict an offender.

The What Car? research found Dyfed-Powys Police in South Wales is the most active in using dash cam footage.

It has taken action over 81.3% of the videos it’s received, with 40.2% of offenders receiving a warning, 18.6% of them were prosecuted in court and 18.4% were asked to attend a driver awareness course, while just 4.0% were handed an FPN.

London’s Metropolitan Police received the largest volume of submissions – nearly 25,000 videos over four years – and acted in 45.4% of cases, issuing court proceedings to 18.9% of offenders, driver awareness courses to 13.9%, FPNs to 9.6% and warnings to 2.9%.

The report comes one month after Fleet News reported that 3,805 videos were uploaded to the National Dash Cam Safety Portal in just 90 days.

The National Dash Cam Safety Portal, which allows motorists to quickly and securely upload footage of dangerous driving to the relevant police authority, is now being used by 33 forces.

Fleet operators and their drivers are being urged to share dashcam footage with police to help prosecute dangerous drivers and improve road safety.

Police forces that have taken the highest share of actions per footage received –

Police Force	Number of dash cam videos received 2017 – 2020	Number of videos resulting in action by Police Force	Percentage of videos resulting in action by the Police Force
Dyfed-Powys Police	375	305	81.3%
Norfolk & Suffolk Constabulary	1877	966	51.5%
Northamptonshire Police	612	300	49.0%
Metropolitan Police Service	24,799	11,247	45.4%
Gwent Police	728	306	42.0%
Warwickshire Police	1875	722	38.5%
Gloucestershire Constabulary	470	180	38.3%
Humberside Police	272	94	34.6%
Devon and Cornwall Constabulary	1182	379	32.1%
North Wales Police	1857	516	27.8%

By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

The Government should focus on decarbonising the fuel, not the vehicle, a new report into the future of Britain’s automotive industry has said.

The ban of the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 “wasn’t helpful”, said the Decarbonising Road Transport: There is no Silver Bullet report, commissioned by companies including Honda, Aston Martin, Bosch and McLaren.

It encouraged manufacturers to follow the lead of Polestar and Volkswagen in being more transparent about the emissions generated during the production of each model, after research found the manufacture of EVs generates 63% more CO2 than its petrol or diesel equivalent.

The report said a Polestar 2 would need to run for around 49,000 miles before its carbon footprint became smaller than that of a diesel Volvo XC40.

However, this figure – and much of the interpretation in included in the press release – has been disputed, with analyst Michael Liebrich saying this figure is actually nearer 16,000 miles.

Dr Uwe Gackstattar, president of Bosch Powertrain Solutions, called on the Government to leave engineers to come up with the solutions.

Andy Palmer, former CEO of Aston Martin, said it was vital to understand there were many routes to net zero.

He added: “You can demand zero CO2 from the tailpipe, but a lot of CO2 is then produced in manufacturing.

“And while synthetic fuels are not CO2-free at the tailpipe, they can be at production and expulsion. There are lots of solutions and it’s important we make that distinction.”

The report said making all new vehicles zero emissions at the tailpipe works only if the energy grid is zero emission and addresses only those new vehicles sold each year, which is around two million.

Introducing renewable fuels impacts on all vehicles in the legacy car parc – around 40 million – 10% of which are more than 20 years old.

Report recommendations

The report made six recommendations:

• The focus should be on the decarbonisation of the fuel, not the vehicle in order to meet the country’s climate change ambitions.
• The decarbonisation of the legacy fleet is as much of a problem as new vehicles. We need to address both.
• We need to recognise the differing technology needs of different vehicle types.
• Encourage greater transparency from automotive OEMs on the whole vehicle CO2 footprint of their products
• Ensure a clear link between renewable energy generation and transport decarbonisation
• Taking a technology neutral approach to decarbonisation. Allows industry to continue to innovate, offering customers a range of solutions to meet their needs.

The report points out battery electric vehicles face a number of challenges, but “play an integral role in the decarbonisation of road transport”. It added: “They are becoming increasingly viable for a growing number of people.”

Andy Eastlake, managing director of the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, which provided some specific information to report author Clarendon Communications, said: “We need to do more than just electrify the fleet.

“We are still selling diesel and petrol cars, the engines of which could play out until 2050, so we have to look at decarbonising fuel.”

In a later statement, LowCVP said the recent media interpretation of the report does not in any way reflect the organisation’s position.

“Lifecycle analysis (sourced from Polestar in the report) has not been properly contextualised in several media reports,” it said.

“These highlight a single snapshot to suggest only modest emissions benefits arising from EV adoption.

“As stated in the report, energy grids in UK and elsewhere are rapidly decarbonising and EV battery and associated production processes are also improving so the lifecycle impacts of electric vehicles are on a sharply improving trajectory.

“LowCVP has been a lead proponent of efforts to incorporate the full life-cycle analysis of road transport CO2 emissions and other sustainability factors into policy decisions and will continue to do so.

“However, this is a complex area and analysis of life-cycle impacts should be seen as a key part of the process towards achieving zero emissions transport and not – as in this case – as a misleading tool to undermine progress.”

‘Driving an EV is better for climate’

Fiona Howarth, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, added: “Studies have consistently shown that EVs emit significantly less lifetime emissions than internal combustion engine cars.

“In 95% of the world, driving an EV is better for the climate than a petrol car and in countries like Sweden and France, where most electricity is low carbon, emissions are around 70% lower – a massive environmental benefit.

“Unlike their fossil fuel counterparts, EVs also get cleaner as we decarbonise our energy grids.”

“If we’re serious about tackling the climate emergency, there is no question that we should all aim to walk, cycle and take public transport where possible, but if you’re going to drive make it electric.”  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News

Production process problems have been blamed for recalls by Ford and BMW affecting more than 46,000 cars, including almost 5,000 in the UK.

Ford recalled more than 20,000 Kuga plug-in hybrids in August after it found, in some instances, faulty batteries had overheated when charging, causing a fire. Owners, including around 1,800 in the UK, were advised not to charge their cars and to operate them in ‘EV Auto’ mode only.

Ford also sent affected customers a £500 fuel card for use at BP fuel stations, acknowledging that the fuel economy of the PHEV “may not be what customers may have expected when they took delivery”.

The manufacturer has now announced a fix for the problem, which will involve the entire drive battery pack being replaced.

The work will be carried out towards the end of December for customers who already have their vehicles, with the recall expected to take until late March to complete.

“We will be communicating with customers directly later in November to arrange a time to implement the replacement,” it said.

Following Ford’s recall, BMW revealed it has identified almost 3,000 plug-in hybrid models in the UK that could be at risk of a battery fire.

It has now issued a recall and suspended delivery of affected new models as a preventative measure. A total of 26,700 vehicles are said to be involved worldwide, of which around 2,930 are either with UK customers or awaiting delivery.

The recall affects plug-in hybrid versions of the 3, 5 and 7 Series, the X1, X2, X3 and X5 SUVs, the 2 Series Active Tourer and the Mini Country-man PHEV, built between January 20 and September 18, 2020. It also affects i8s built this year.

“I see this is as just another recall and it doesn’t cause me any concern about the technology,” Debbie Floyde, Bauer Media

In a statement, the German carmaker said particles may have entered the battery during the production process, which could lead to a short circuit within the battery cells when it is fully charged. This may lead to a fire.

BMW says it is currently working on a solution to the fault. Until a remedy is available, drivers have been instructed to not charge their vehicle, not to drive in manual or sport mode, and to not use the shift paddles.

Ford also acknowledged that the issue had arisen in the production of the car’s battery, which is sourced from an external supplier.

“The root cause has been identified as a battery cell contamination issue in our supplier’s production process,” it said.

The two recalls come a year after Kia recalled more than 5,000 Niro hybrid and plug-in hybrid models due to an electrical relay that could overheat.

Vehicle fire data

Data obtained through a Freedom of Information (FOI) request revealed that in 2019 the London Fire Brigade dealt with 54 electric vehicle fires compared with 1,898 petrol and diesel fires.

Vehicle registration numbers from the Department for Transport (DfT) show there are 50,000-plus plug-in cars licensed in the capital out of a total 4.63 million licensed cars.

Looking at the London Fire Brigade data, that would suggest an incident rate of 0.04% for petrol and diesel car fires, while the rate for plug-in vehicle is more than double at 0.1%. So far this year, there have been 1,021 petrol and diesel fires and 27 EV fires in the capital.

Leasing companies are reporting a surge of interest in plug-in vehicles thanks, in part, to new, EV-friendly company car tax rates introduced in April.

Plug-in vehicles, both PHEV and pure electric new registrations, accounted for 12% of all new registrations in October, while Tusker reported that more than 45% of all its new orders over the past 30 days have been for pure EVs.

Group fleet manager at Bauer Media, Debbie Floyde, has first-hand experience of the issue after a BMW 330e on her fleet suffered an electrical fire.

The car was left on charge on overnight at the employee’s home, but the following morning he discovered the car had not charged and there was a fault on the dash saying that the car was using power while stationary.

On closer inspection he found that both his outside plug socket and the charging unit plug had melted.

However, the experience has not put Floyde off electric cars.

“I see this is as just another recall and it doesn’t cause me any concern about the technology,” she said.

“We have lots of drivers interested in having an electric car and we’re happy for them to make that choice.”  By Graham Hill thanks to Fleet News